Early predictions are calling for the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season to be a busy one.
Philip Klotzbach and William Gray, scientists at the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University, issued a report on April 7 that said they foresee above-average activity for the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season.
AccuWeather meteorologists concurred in a report issued April 8 with Joe Bastardi, chief long-range meteorologist and hurricane forecaster saying the 2010 season will be much more active with above-normal threats on the U.S. coastline.
The experts from Colorado are predicting that 15 named storms will form this season, eight hurricanes and four intense hurricanes, Category 3 or above.
Bastardi's team is forecasting 16 to 18 tropical storms with 15 of them forming in the western Atlantic of Gulf of Mexico and becoming a threat to land. AccuWeather experts also say seven of the storms will make landfall. Five will be hurricanes and two or three will by major landfalls in the United States, they said.
Gray and Klotzbach predict landfall probability of 69 percent for the entire U.S. coastline. The average for the last century is 52 percent. They said there is a 45 percent chance that a hurricane will make landfall on the U.S. East Coast including the Peninsula Florida. The average for the last century is 31 percent. The probability for the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville is 44 percent. The average for the last century is 30 percent.
The probability of at least one major hurricane, Category 3 or above, making landfall in the Caribbean is 58 percent. The average for the last century is 42 percent.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs for June 1 to Nov. 30.
The experts give several reasons for their predictions, including weakening El Nino conditions, strong unusual warming of the tropical Atlantic, which were the two main factors considered by Gray and Klotzbach.
Bastardi added two additional conditions: weakening trade winds and higher humidity levels, which he says make for more favorable conditions for storms to develop and strengthen.
Hurricane names
The National Hurricane Center released its list of storm names for the 2010 season. If the experts are right, the public can expect to be introduced to Alex, Bonnie, Colin, Danielle, Earl, Fiona, Gaston, Hermine, Igor, Julia, Karl, Lisa, Matthew, Nicole, Otto, Paula, Richard and Shary - the first 18 names on the list. The others are Tomas, Virginie and Walter.
If more than 21 named storms form, the additional storms will take names from the Greek alphabet, starting with Alpha.
Forecast changes
The NHC made several changes in the way tropical weather will be forecast in 2010.
Watches and warnings along threatened coastal areas will be issued 12 hours earlier than past years. Tropical storm watches will be issued within 48 hours, and tropical storm warnings will be issued when adverse conditions are expected within 36 hours.
Another change involves the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, which the NHC said would become operational this year. The scale keeps the same wind speed ranges but no longer ties specific storm surge and flooding effects to each category.
One additional change concerns the size of the forecast cone, which represents the probable track of the center of the storm.
As the season draws closer, more experts will be making seasonal predictions with the NHC's forecast coming in late May.
Regardless of the forecast, experts advise residents to be prepared, to make a hurricane plan now and be ready before the first storm comes.
For information on preparing for the 2010 hurricane season, visit the hurricane guide.
