This satellite photo shows Chris north-northeast of Port Au Prince, Haiti as a tropical depression on Wednesday morning.
PINELLAS COUNTY - Hurricane season 2006 may not be as bad as early predictions indicated, according to hurricane expert William M. Gray and his colleagues at Colorado State University.
Gray, professor of atmospheric science at Colorado State University and head of the Tropical Meteorology Project, and Philip J. Klotzbach, project member and research associate at Colorado State University, issued updated predictions on the season's activities on Thursday, Aug. 3.
Gray and Klotzbach still think that the 2006 Atlantic Hurricane season will be more active than the average 1950-2000 season; however the prediction for the 2006 season has been downgraded to include fewer named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes than previous forecasts.
The experts now say that the season will include 15 named storms - down two from the April forecast of 17. As for Aug. 1, three named storms have formed this season.
The August update predicts that seven hurricanes will form - for from nine in the April forecast. The number of intense hurricanes also was downgraded from five to three.
The average number of named storms for the period, 1950-2000, was 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 intense hurricanes, the report said.
"This 3 August forecast reduces our forecast from our early December 2005, early April 2006 and late May 2006 predictions due to small changes in June-July atmospheric and oceanic fields that indicate conditions are less favorable for tropical cyclone development in the tropical Atlantic," the report said.
These changes include above-average tropical Atlantic sea level pressure, above-average tropical Atlantic trade wind strength and a decreasing trend in tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures. Sea surface temperatures have also risen slightly in the eastern equatorial Pacific.
"We expect an active hurricane season for the Atlantic basin, but we do not foresee nearly as active a season as was experienced in 2004 and 2005," the experts said.
While the forecasts may seem like good news to residents who live in coastal communities, Frank Lepore, with the National Hurricane Center, cautioned that people should not let down their guard.
"We are better served preparing for the one and not getting hung up in the numbers," he said.
Lepore said Hurricane Andrew in 1992 formed in a year that had a quiet early season.
2006 season summary
Hurricane season has been quieter than the record-breaking 2005 season with only three named storms forming as of Aug. 1.
By Aug. 7, 2005, nine tropical storms had formed. Irene was the earliest ninth named storm, breaking the old record by 13 days. The NHC said that the average number of named storms formed by Aug. 7 is two.
Chris became the third named storm of the 2006 Atlantic Hurricane season on Aug. 1. As of Thursday, Aug. 3, it had been downgraded to a tropical depression.
The first tropical storm of the season - Alberto - came ashore in the Big Bend area near Adams Beach on June 13. Minimal damage was reported.
On July 18, tropical depression No. 2 became the second named storm of the season - Tropical Storm Beryl. The storm posed no threat to Floridians.
Hurricane season continues through Nov. 30.
Similar seasons to 2006
Gray and Klotzbach's report said that there were five hurricane seasons since 1949 with characteristics similar to what was observed in June and July and what is projected for August through October.
"The best analog years that we could find for the 2006 hurricane season are 1953, 1958, 1980, 2001 and 2003," the report said. "We anticipate that 2006 will have comparable seasonal hurricane activity to what was experienced in the average of these five years. We believe that the 2006 Atlantic basin hurricane season will be somewhat above average."
Gray and Klotzbach said the fact that only two names tropical storms formed during June and July did not influence their updated forecast.
"There have been many active hurricane seasons (e.g., 1950, 2004, etc.) that had no activity in June and July," the report said. "Last year (2005) was an unusually active early season with seven named storms and two major hurricanes before August 1. Last year broke most existing single season hurricane records."
In April, Gray and Klotzbach said there was an 81 percent chance that at least one intense hurricane will make landfall along the U.S. coastline and a 64 percent chance that an intense storm will make landfall along the U.S. East Coast, including Peninsula Florida. The report gave a 47 percent chance for an intense hurricane to make landfall along the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville, Texas, and an above average chance of major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean.
The August update was good news for people living on the Gulf Coast. The experts said that landfall probabilities are slightly below average for the Gulf Coast. The probability of a major hurricane making landfall along the Gulf Coast was estimated at 26 percent.
Landfall probabilities for the East Coast are high, the report said.
"The odds of a major hurricane making landfall along the East Coast are more than twice the climatological average value this year," according to the August predictions.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will be updating its season forecast on Tuesday, Aug. 8. NOAA's May predictions called for 13 to 16 named storms with 8 to 10 hurricanes and four to six major hurricanes, Category 3 or above. NOAA will release it mid-season predictions sometime in early August.
Gray and Klotzbach will issue updates on Sept. 1 and Oct. 3.
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