PINELLAS COUNTY – Hurricane experts on Aug. 3 slightly downgraded earlier predictions for the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season. They also said the busy months were still to come.
Meteorologists with the National Hurricane Center, as well as hurricane experts William M. Gray and Philip J. Klotzbach, at Colorado State University, agree that the coming season will most likely be more active than average.
Gray and Klotzbach did not change that part of their forecast.
“We have lowered our seasonal forecast slightly; however, we continue to call for a very active Atlantic basin hurricane season in 2007. Landfall probabilities for the United States coastline remain above their long-period averages,” the Aug. 3 report said.
The forecast calls for 15 named storms to form this year – 13 of them between Aug. 1 and the official end of the season on Nov. 30. Eight hurricanes, four of them a Category 3 or above also were predicted to form this year.
The experts gave odds of 68 percent that a storm would hit somewhere along the U.S. coastline. The average for the last century is 52 percent. They gave a 43 percent chance that a storm would hit the U.S. east coast, including the peninsula of Florida. The historical average is 31 percent. They said there’s a 44 percent chance a storm would hit somewhere along the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville. The historical average is 30 percent.
Tom Iovino with the Pinellas County Communications Department acknowledged that what is traditionally considered the busy season was coming. Iovino has been presenting a series of seminars on hurricane myths throughout the county since the season began on June 1.
“It’s been a really quiet season,” he said. “But, I like to remind people that Hurricane Charlie didn’t come until Aug. 13.”
He said during a typical year, it takes the season awhile to “ramp up.” He said sea surface temperatures now are getting warm enough and the wind shear present during the spring and early summer months is dying down, improving the chance for a storm to form.
Three named storms have formed this season, which Iovino said already makes 2007 an above-average season.
“We’re already ahead of where we should be,” he said.
People should not let season forecasts rule their decisions on preparedness, he said.
“It only takes one bad storm to make it a bad year,” he said. “People need to prepare.”
He pointed to a recent Harvard study that showed that 100 percent of people would leave a burning house and seek safety.
“But, if you tell people 24 hours in advance that storm is coming that could be just as dangerous, people don’t believe you,” he said.
He said while people could not control nature, they had complete control of what they could do when threatened by a hurricane or tropical storm. He said being prepared and ready to evacuate if needed was the key to survival.
People who have yet to prepare, make their hurricane plan and stock their hurricane kit, should not delay. If the latest forecast comes true, three named storms will form in August. Two will strengthen into hurricanes. One will be a Category 3 or above.
September’s forecast calls for five named storms, four hurricanes and 2 intense hurricanes. The experts predict five named storms, two hurricanes and one intense hurricane will form in October and November.
