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Hurricane forecast update
NOAA ups chance of above-normal season
By SUZETTE PORTER
Article published on Thursday, Aug. 7, 2008 |
PINELLAS COUNTY – Hurricane forecasters say the remainder of the 2008 season could be busy in the Atlantic basin.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s top hurricane season forecaster announced Aug. 7 an increased possibility of an above-normal hurricane season.
Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray, professors at the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University, released undated predictions for 2008 on Aug. 5, which also forecast increased activity in the Atlantic basin for the remainder of the season.
NOAA now predicts as many as 14 to 18 named storms could form in 2008, of which seven to 10 are expected to become hurricanes, with three to six becoming major hurricanes.
Gray and Klotzbach’s latest estimates call for 17 named storms, nine hurricanes and five intense (major) hurricanes.
A major hurricane is a Category 3 or above.
Five named storms have formed so far this season. Tropical Storm Arthur impacted the Yucatan Peninsula in late May and early June. Bertha was a major hurricane and the longest-lived July storm on record, lasting from July 3-20. Tropical Storm Cristobal hugged the North Carolina coastline but did not come ashore.
Dolly made landfall as a Category 2 hurricane at South Padre Island, Texas on July 25. And on August 5, Tropical Storm Edouard struck the upper Texas coast.
“Leading indicators for an above-normal season during 2008 include the continuing multi-decadal signal – atmospheric and oceanic conditions that have spawned increased hurricane activity since 1995 – and the lingering effects of La Nińa,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “Some of these conditions include reduced wind shear, weaker trade winds, an active West African monsoon system, the winds coming off of Africa and warmer-than-average water in the Atlantic Ocean.”
Currently the waters in the Atlantic are 1 to 1.5 degrees F. above normal, Bell said during an Aug. 7 teleconference.
All the experts cited above normal activity in July as another factor upping the numbers for the remainder of the season.
Bell cautioned that there is still a 10 percent chance that the season will be near normal and a 5 percent chance of a below normal season.
Regardless of the probabilities, Bell said “considerable activity” was expected for the rest of the year.
“It is critical that everyone know the risk for your area, and have a plan to protect yourself, your family and your property, or to evacuate if requested by local emergency managers. Be prepared throughout the remainder of the hurricane season,” Bell said. “Even people who live inland should be prepared for severe weather and flooding from a tropical storm or a hurricane.”
The Atlantic hurricane season includes activity over the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. The peak months of the season are August through October.
Emergency management officials continue to urge residents to stay in tune with local weather forecasts throughout hurricane season.
For hurricane preparedness information, visit TBNweekly.com’s Hurricane Guide.
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Article published on Thursday, Aug. 7, 2008
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