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Hurricane watch still in effect
Pinellas under tropical storm warning
By SUZETTE PORTER
Article published on Monday, Aug. 18, 2008 |
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![[Image]](/content_images/081808_fpg-08.gif) |
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| The three-day forecast track from the National Hurricane Center at 5 p.m. Aug. 18, shows Tropical Storm Fay about 145 miles south of Fort Myers. |
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![[Image]](/content_images/081808_fpg-08a.gif) |
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| Computer models continue to show disagreement for Tropical Storm Fay’s track and intensity. |
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PINELLAS COUNTY – The news looked good for Pinellas County on Monday night as Tropical Storm Fay continued on its way toward the southwest coast.
The 5 p.m. forecast track from the National Hurricane Center showed Fay coming ashore on Tuesday afternoon somewhere near Fort Myers as a tropical storm.
The National Hurricane Center issued a tropical storm warning for Pinellas County on Monday afternoon, and the existing hurricane watch remains in effect, which means residents could begin to experience tropical storm conditions with 24 hours and hurricane conditions within 36 hours.
At 5 p.m., Fay was about 145 miles south of Fort Myers. The storm was moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph. A turn toward the north with a slower forward speed was expected sometime Monday night followed by a generally northward motion on Tuesday and Tuesday night.
According to the NHC, Fay should move away from the Florida Keys on Monday night and near or over the southwestern coast of Florida on Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds were near 60 mph with higher gusts. Strengthening was expected through the night and Tuesday. Fay was forecast to be at or near hurricane strength as it approaches the southwest coast.
However, NHC meteorologists said in the 5 p.m. forecast discussion that “there is a distinct chance Fay might not reach hurricane strength before landfall, especially if it moves to the right of the forecast track.”
The NHC discussion continued to point to disagreement in the computer models for landfall and intensity.
“It should be noted that similar to Charley in 2004, small deviations from the forecast track could make large differences in when and where the center of Fay makes landfall,” the NHC discussion said.
Tropical storm force winds extended outward up to 125 miles from the center. The NOAA automated station at Sombrero Key recently reported two-minute average winds of 60 mph, and station at Sand Key recently reported a wind gust of 71 mph.
The National Weather Center in Ruskin advised people in the warnings areas to prepare for the onset of tropical storm force winds before it gets dark on Monday.
“Gusty winds in outer rain bands may make it difficult to take protective actions on Tuesday morning,” officials said.
The latest weather forecast for Pinellas County and surrounding areas for Tuesday called for a storm surge of 2 feet above normal high tide. Maximum winds of 50 to 60 mph with some higher gusts also were expected for Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches were forecast with the possibility of more in some areas. The threat from tornados will be moderate and primarily in the right front quadrants of the storm, the NWS said.
Season forecast update
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced Aug. 7 an increased possibility of an above-normal hurricane season.
Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray, professors at the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University, released undated predictions for 2008 on Aug. 5, which also forecast increased activity in the Atlantic basin for the remainder of the season.
NOAA now predicts as many as 14 to 18 named storms could form in 2008, of which seven to 10 are expected to become hurricanes, with three to six becoming major hurricanes.
Gray and Klotzbach’s latest estimates call for 17 named storms, nine hurricanes and five intense (major) hurricanes.
A major hurricane is a Category 3 or above.
Six named storms have formed so far this season. Tropical Storm Arthur impacted the Yucatan Peninsula in late May and early June. Bertha was a major hurricane and the longest-lived July storm on record, lasting from July 3-20. Tropical Storm Cristobal hugged the North Carolina coastline but did not come ashore.
Dolly made landfall as a Category 2 hurricane at South Padre Island, Texas on July 25. And on August 5, Tropical Storm Edouard struck the upper Texas coast.
Fay is the sixth named storm of the season.
The Atlantic hurricane season, June 1-Nov. 30, includes activity over the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. The peak months of the season are August through October.
For hurricane preparedness information, visit TBNweekly.com’s Hurricane Guide.
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Article published on Monday, Aug. 18, 2008
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