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Hurricane warning canceled for Pinellas
Fay tracks toward southwest coast
By SUZETTE PORTER
Article published on Monday, Aug. 18, 2008 |
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![[Image]](/content_images/081808_fpg-10.gif) |
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| The three-day forecast track from the National Hurricane Center at 11 p.m. Aug. 18, shows Tropical Storm Fay about 60 miles south of Naples. |
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![[Image]](/content_images/081808_fpg-10a.gif) |
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| Computer models continue to show disagreement for Tropical Storm Fay’s track. |
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PINELLAS COUNTY – More good news for Pinellas County came with the 11 p.m. update on Tropical Storm Fay. At 11 p.m., the National Hurricane Center canceled the hurricane warning for Pinellas County. A tropical storm warning remained in effect.
The warning means that tropical storm conditions could be experienced in the area within 24 hours.
The center of the storm was located about 60 miles south of Naples. Fay was moving toward the north at about 9 mph. NHC meteorologists said Fay was expected to move slightly east over the next couple of days.
The center was expected to cross the coast of southwest Florida Tuesday morning and continue inland over central Florida through the day on Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Maximum sustained winds were near 60 mph with higher gusts. The NHC said Fay could still approach hurricane strength prior to landfall. Weakening was forecast as the storm moved over the peninsula.
Tropical storm force winds extended outward up to 125 miles from the center. A wind gust of 59 mph was recently reported at an elevated National Weather Service site at Flamingo.
The NHC said some uncertainty still exists as to where the storm may go after 48 hours due to a mid-tropospheric ridge building over the eastern United States that could block the forward progress of the storm.
The official forecast calls for Fay to continue moving over land and dissipating within 120 hours.
The National Weather Service in Ruskin said that it was becoming less likely that a significant storm surge would occur due to Fay making landfall well south of Tampa Bay.
Maximum winds of 50 to 60 mph with some higher gusts were still possible on Tuesday and Tuesday night as organized rain bands passed through the area.
Rainfall of 3 to 5 inches or more were possible through Wednesday, the NWS said. Pinellas County was under a flood watch.
The tornado threat for the area was moderate with the primary area for tornado development in the right front quadrant of the storm.
Pinellas County officials were expected to make a final decision on Tuesday morning about the Level A, Category 1, mandatory evacuation scheduled to begin at 6 a.m.
Season forecast update
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced Aug. 7 an increased possibility of an above-normal hurricane season.
Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray, professors at the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University, released undated predictions for 2008 on Aug. 5, which also forecast increased activity in the Atlantic basin for the remainder of the season.
NOAA now predicts as many as 14 to 18 named storms could form in 2008, of which seven to 10 are expected to become hurricanes, with three to six becoming major hurricanes.
Gray and Klotzbach’s latest estimates call for 17 named storms, nine hurricanes and five intense (major) hurricanes.
A major hurricane is a Category 3 or above.
Six named storms have formed so far this season. Tropical Storm Arthur impacted the Yucatan Peninsula in late May and early June. Bertha was a major hurricane and the longest-lived July storm on record, lasting from July 3-20. Tropical Storm Cristobal hugged the North Carolina coastline but did not come ashore.
Dolly made landfall as a Category 2 hurricane at South Padre Island, Texas on July 25. And on August 5, Tropical Storm Edouard struck the upper Texas coast.
Fay is the sixth named storm of the season.
The Atlantic hurricane season, June 1-Nov. 30, includes activity over the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. The peak months of the season are August through October.
For hurricane preparedness information, visit TBNweekly.com’s Hurricane Guide.
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Article published on Monday, Aug. 18, 2008
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