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PINELLAS COUNTY – It seems most likely that Hurricane Dean won’t have any effect on the weather in Pinellas County. The latest forecast track takes it south of Florida on a track toward Mexico.

Hurricane Dean had the tiny island of Jamaica in its sights on Sunday afternoon. The Category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 145 mph was expected to pass very near the south coast of Jamaica tonight and early Monday morning.

Dean was moving west-northwest at about 18 mph and was expected to continue moving in the same general direction for the next 24 hours. National Hurricane Center meteorologists said some fluctuations in intensity were expected as the storm continues on a path toward the Yucatan and Mexico.

The latest official track shows Dean making landfall on the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula Monday night or early Tuesday morning. A second landfall is shown along the coast of Mexico sometime on Wednesday.

Rip current threat

Although Hurricane Dean is not forecast to pose a direct threat to residents in Pinellas County, officials with the Florida Division of Emergency Management said swells from Dean will likely increase the rip current threat along the state's Gulf Coast on Tuesday and Wednesday. Floridians and visitors to the state's beaches should heed the advice of lifeguards and posted signs.

Most active part of the season

The most active part of the hurricane season began in August and continues through October. Despite a slow start to the season, meteorologists still forecast above-average activity for the year.

Meteorologists with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration updated the 2007 hurricane outlook on Aug. 9 and predicted an 85 percent chance of an above-average activity.

Hurricane experts William M. Gray and Philip J. Klotzbach, at Colorado State University, said in a report on Aug. 3 that landfall probabilities for the United States coastline remain above their long-period averages.

NOAA’s latest predictions call for 13 to 16 named storms, with seven to nine becoming hurricanes, of which three to five could become major hurricanes (Category 3 strength or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale).

The Colorado experts’ forecast calls for 15 named storms to form this year – 12 of them between Aug. 1 and the official end of the season on Nov. 30. Eight hurricanes, four of them a Category 3 or above also were predicted to form this year.

Gray and Klotzbach’s August forecast calls for three named storms to form. Of the three, two are predicted to strengthen into hurricanes and one into a major hurricane.

So far, the experts are on target with Dean and Erin totaling two of the three forecasted named storms. Dean fulfills the forecast for one of the two hurricanes and is the predicted major hurricane.

Gray and Klotzbach’s September forecast calls for five named storms, four of which will strengthen into hurricanes and two of the four into intense hurricanes. For the remainder of the season, October through November, they forecasted five named storms, two of which could strengthen into hurricanes and one into an intense hurricane.

Pinellas County, Emergency Management officials urge residents to keep aware of the weather throughout the remainder of the season. They said people should watch a weather report at least once a day and inspect their hurricane kits and finalize hurricane preparedness plans.

Residents who do not know their hurricane evacuation level should visit www.pinellascounty.org/emergency or call 727-453-3150. Evacuation levels also are printed on Pinellas County Utility bills and Truth in Millage notices coming from the Property Appraiser’s office.

Citizens with special needs and those that plan to utilize a pet shelter need to pre-register, host home arrangements need to be completed, and all plans put in place.

Thus far this season, five named storms have formed - Andrea, Barry, and Chantal, Dean and Erin. Dean was the first hurricane of the season.

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30.

For hurricane preparedness information, visit Tampa Bay Newspapers Online Hurricane Guide. Additional information can be found at www.pinellascounty.org/emergency/PDF/survive-the-storm.pdf.

Article published on Sunday, Aug. 19, 2007

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