A enlarged view of the three-day forecast track for Tropical Depression Four issued at 5 p.m. EDT Aug. 23 by the National Hurricane Center.
The fourth tropical depression of the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season formed over the Turks and Caicos Saturday evening.
According to the 5 p.m. advisory from the National Hurricane Center, the depression was located about 75 miles northeast of the Great Inagua Island and 255 miles east-southeast of the Central Bahamas. It was moving to the northwest at about 12 mph.
Maximum sustained winds were 35 mph. The depression is forecast to become Tropical Storm Cristobal by Sunday and a hurricane by Tuesday afternoon.
On the current official forecast track, the storm will pass well off the east coast of Florida. However, some computer models show it moving toward south Florida. Others show it coming closer to the east coast. No models show it tracking near Tampa Bay.
A tropical storm warning is in effect for southeastern Bahamas as well as the Turks and Caicos Island and central Bahamas. The system is expected to pass over portions of central Bahamas Sunday and Monday.
Hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center updated its season Outlook Aug. 7. The updated hurricane season outlook, which includes hurricanes Arthur and Bertha, predicts a 70 percent chance of the following ranges: seven to 12 named storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher), including three to six hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which zero to two could become major hurricanes (Category 3, 4, 5; winds of at least 111 mph).
These ranges are below the 30-year seasonal average of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes. The initial outlook in May predicted eight to 13 named storms, three to six hurricanes and one to two major hurricanes.
For more information about hurricanes and how to prepare, visit the Hurricane Guide.