The 11 a.m. Sunday five-day forecast track for Hurricane Ernesto from the National Hurricane Center.
A graphic posted Sunday morning at sfwmd.gov shows various computer models for Tropical Storm Ernesto.
PINELLAS COUNTY - Ernesto became the first hurricane of the season on Sunday morning when it reached wind speeds of 75 mph. It's current forecast path makes it threat to the Florida Keys and Florida Peninsula, state officials said.
The latest report from the National Hurricane Center forecasts that Ernesto will make landfall as a Category 3 hurricane sometime on Thursday morning. The official forecast track, which is a consensus of the latest computer models, shows Ernesto making landfall somewhere between Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay before moving across the state and exiting the state on the northeast coast on Friday morning as a tropical storm.
However, meteorologists caution that it is difficult to make forecasts beyond about three days. The official forecast track could change over the next couple of days.
The latest computer models still are not in total agreement and show a mix of scenarios between a landfall in the Florida Panhandle, somewhere along the west coast or even on the southern coast.
Officials urge residents and visitors to keep a close eye on the weather and to make all necessary preparations and be prepared to evacuate if necessary. Tropical storm watches were expected for the Florida Keys sometime on Sunday, state emergency officials said.
At 11 a.m. Sunday, the center of the storm was about 115 miles southwest of Part Au Prince Haiti and about 205 miles south-southeast of Guantanamo Cuba.
Ernesto was moving toward the northwest about 9 mph. The storm was expected to pass near the southwestern tip of Haiti on Sunday afternoon or early evening and be near the southeastern coast of Cuba on Monday morning.
Maximum sustained winds were near 75 mph with higher gusts. Ernesto was a Category 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some strengthening was forecast and the NHC said Ernesto could become a Category 2 hurricane before it reaches the coast of Cuba.
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
Tropical Storm - Winds 39-73 mph
Category 1 Hurricane - winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)
No real damage to buildings. Damage to unanchored mobile homes. Some damage to poorly constructed signs. In addition, some coastal flooding and minor pier damage.
- Examples: Gaston 2004, Irene 1999 and Allison 1995
Some damage to building roofs, doors and windows. Considerable damage to mobile homes. Flooding damages piers and small craft in unprotected moorings may break their moorings. Some trees blown down.
- Examples: Frances 2004, Isabel 2003, Bonnie 1998, Georges (Fla. and La.) 1998
Some structural damage to small residences and utility buildings. Large trees blown down. Mobile homes and poorly built signs destroyed. Flooding near the coast destroys smaller structures with larger structures damaged by floating debris. Terrain may be flooded well inland.
- Examples: Katrina, 2005, Jeanne and Ivan, 2004, Keith 2000
Current Forecast
Discussion from the NHC said that wind shear over Ernesto was diminishing and that it was possible that the storm could rapidly intensify on Sunday to a Category 2 hurricane.
Ernesto was forecast to cross central and western Cuba by Monday night and Tuesday and then emerge into the southeast Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday afternoon. Interaction with the Cuban terrain should weaken Ernesto back to Category 1 strength.
Ernesto was forecast to move close to the Florida Keys by Tuesday evening. Tropical storm conditions will likely overspread the Keys and possibly south Florida on Tuesday morning.
The official forecast rapidly strengthens Ernesto to Category 2 status in the eastern Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday afternoon and then to Category 3 strength before a potential landfall on Thursday.
"It is important for Floridians not to focus on the exact forecast track towards the middle portion of the week due to the uncertainty in the forecast," state emergency officials said.
Ernesto could spread tropical storm conditions into the peninsula beginning on Tuesday night or Wednesday, all depending on the hurricane's future path. All of southwest and most of southeast Florida falls within the average three-day forecast cone.
Tropical storm conditions may arrive as soon as Tuesday morning in southeast Florida if Ernesto deviates to the right of the current official forecast track, state officials said. Based on the latest official forecast, there is a significant risk of a major hurricane impact in the peninsula later this week.
Floridians are urged to finalize family and business disaster plans and supply kits as soon as possible and be prepared to act if the storm threatens Florida's Keys, southeast Florida or the Peninsula. For more information on hurricane preparations, visit www.floridadisaster.org or Tampa Bay Newspaper's Online Hurricane Guide.
What a difference a year can make
On Aug. 22, 2005, the National Hurricane Center announced that tropical depression 12 had formed, and Floridians were urged to keep a close eye on the weather. At the time, no one could know the depression would grow into a monster hurricane named Katrina.
Katrina made landfall as a Category 1 hurricane at 7 p.m. Aug. 25, 2005 between Hallandale Beach and North Miami Beach. Wind speeds were reportedly 80 mph with higher gusts. After traveling across southern Florida, the storm strengthened to a Category 5 and finally made a second landfall as a Category 3 hurricane on Aug. 29, 2005 near Plaquemines Parish, La.
Katrina devastated a large portion of the Gulf coast from Louisiana to Florida Panhandle. Recovery efforts are still ongoing.
Despite predictions for another busier than usual season, only five tropical storms have formed thus far. Ernesto is the first hurricane of the season. Debby was downgraded to a tropical depression on Saturday afternoon.
At this time last year, 12 tropical depressions had formed; ten had grown into named tropical storms and three into hurricanes.
Season predictions
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued its mid-season forecast on Tuesday, Aug. 8. William M. Gray, professor of atmospheric science at Colorado State University and head of the Tropical Meteorology Project, and Philip J. Klotzbach, project member and research associate at Colorado State University, issued updated predictions on the season's activities on Thursday, Aug. 3.
According to Gray and Klotzbach's latest predictions, the season could include up to 15 named storms - down two from the April forecast of 17. NOAA predicts 12 to 15 - down from 13 to 16.
Gray and Klotzbach predict that seven hurricanes could form - down from nine forecast in April forecast. NOAA forecasts seven to nine - down from eight to 10. The number of intense hurricanes also was downgraded from five to three by Gray and Klotzbach. NOAA predicts that three to four Category 3 or above hurricanes could form this season. The average number from 1950-2000 was 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 intense hurricanes.
The peak of the hurricane season is mid-August through the end of October. The season ends on Nov. 30
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