|
|
|
|
|
 |
|
Experts downgrade forecast
Florence is season's sixth storm
By SUZETTE PORTER
Article published on Tuesday, Sept. 5, 2006 |
 |
![[Image]](/content_images/090506_fpg-01-a.gif) |
|
| The 11 a.m. Tuesday five-day forecast track for Tropical Storm Florence from the National Hurricane Center. |
|
![[Image]](/content_images/090506_fpg-01-b.gif) |
|
| A graphic posted Tuesday afternoon at sfwmd.gov shows various computer models for Tropical Storm Florence. |
|
PINELLAS COUNTY - If early track models hold true, Florence, the sixth named tropical storm of the 2006 hurricane season won't be blowing through this county. However, officials remind residents to keep an eye on the weather and stay prepared.
As of Tuesday morning, Florence was thousands of miles away from Tampa Bay and not forecast to be anywhere near the U.S. coast for at least five days. Forecasters with the Natonal Hurricane Center did say that it was possible for Florence to strenghten into the first major hurricane of the season.
Experts downgrade forecast
Hurricane experts William Gray, professor of atmospheric science at Colorado State University and head of the Tropical Meteorology Project, and Philip Klotzbach, project member and research associate at Colorado State University, said Sept. 1 that based on the lower-than-average activity thus far and changing weather conditions, they were downgrading the forecast for the remainder of the season.
The new forecast predicts 13 named storms - down from 15. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted in August that 12 to 16 named storms would form this season. Florence is No. 6.
Gray and Klotzbach now predict that five hurricanes, down from seven predicted earlier, with two of the five forecast to become major hurricanes, category 3 or higher. NOAA predicted in August that seven to nine hurricanes would form and that three to four would become major hurricanes.
Thus far, Ernesto has been the only hurricane of the season - a weak Category 1. The National Hurricane Center said Monday that is was possible for Florence to strengthen into a hurricane by Friday and a major hurricane by Saturday or Sunday.
Gray and Klotzbach's September forecast calls for five named storms, three hurricanes and two major hurricanes- slightly above average. October's forecast calls for two named storms, one hurricane and no major hurricanes - slightly below average.
"We now anticipate that the 2006 Atlantic basin tropical cyclone season will be considerably less active than the seasonal activity we anticipated in our earlier forecasts and in our updated 3 August forecast," the Colorado hurricane experts said. We now expect that the 2006 hurricane season will have slightly less hurricane activity than the long-term average."
Gray and Klotzbach said the below-average season was the result of "an unexpected increase in tropical Atlantic mid-level dryness (with large amounts of African dust) and a continued trend towards El Niño-like conditions in the eastern and central Pacific."
The average number from 1950-2000 was 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 intense hurricanes.
The peak of the hurricane season is mid-August through the end of October. The season ends on Nov. 30.
NOAA does not make landfall forecasts; but members of the Colorado Tropical Meteorology Project do offer some predictions based on statistical trends. However, the Colorado experts said landfall predictions could be wrong and that they do not specify exact locations of landfall.
"Regardless of how active the 2006 hurricane season is, a finite probability always exists that one or more hurricanes may strike along the U.S. coastline or in the Caribbean and do much damage," Gray and Klotzbach's report said.
Max Mayfield, director of the NOAA National Hurricane Center in Miami, said downgraded hurricane predictions did not mean residents should let down their guard
"Preventing the loss of life and minimizing property damage from hurricanes are responsibilities shared by all. Remember, one hurricane hitting your neighborhood is enough to make it a bad season," he said.
Mayfield announced Aug. 25 that he would retire at the end of the year after 34 years of federal service. Mayfield said he wishes to spend more time with his wife and family, which has been very limited during the last two record-setting hurricane seasons.
Current tropical weather conditions
On Tuesday morning, Florence was about 935 miles east of the Lesser Antilles, moving west at about 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 40 mph, and some slow strengthening was forecast over the next 24 hours. Tropical storm force winds extended outward up to 115 miles from the center.
NHC meteorologist said Florence was a large tropical storm.
Florence was forecast to continue moving west-northwest for the next four to five days. After that time, the storm was expected to begin moving northwest.
The NHC also was watching a tropical wave located several hundred miles west of the Cape Verde Island. The wave was continuing to organize, the NHC said, and environmental conditions appeared to be somewhat favorable for a tropical depression to develop during the next couple of days.
|
Article published on Tuesday, Sept. 5, 2006
Copyright © Tampa Bay Newspapers: All rights reserved. |
|
|
|
|
 |
|
|
|
|
 |
|
 |
|
 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
 |
|
 |
|
 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
|
Tampa Bay Newspapers
9911 Seminole Blvd.
Seminole, FL 33772
(727) 397-5563
Open Monday-Friday 8 a.m. to 5 p.m.
|
|
