Residents advised to stay prepared
Atlantic hurricane season may end early
By SUZETTE PORTER
| Article published on Wednesday, Oct. 4, 2006 |
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PINELLAS COUNTY - After earlier predictions that the 2006 Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season would be busier than normal, changing weather patterns have the experts revising their forecasts downward.
"It is expected that the currently rapidly developing El Niño in the central and eastern Pacific will likely bring an early end to the Atlantic basin hurricane season," according to the Oct. 3 report By Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray.
Gray is a professor of atmospheric science at Colorado State University and head of the Tropical Meteorology Project. Klotzbach is a project member and research associate at Colorado State University and, as of this year, has primary responsibility for the project's seasonal, monthly and landfall probability forecasts.
Tom Iovino with the Pinellas County Communications Department said although the report from the Colorado experts, along with current trend, was reason to be "cautiously optimistic," people should not let down their guard.
"Just like all forecasts, sometimes it doesn't happen," he said. "There's plenty of life left in this hurricane season."
Iovino said October is typically a busy month with storms forming in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, which is closer to land than those that come off the African coast, allowing for less time to prepare.
He said the last hurricane to hit Pinellas was in late October of 1921. Last year, Hurricane Wilma, which formed in mid- to late-October broke the all-time intensity record.
"It's way too early to let down our guard," he said. "It only takes one storm to make a bad season."
Iovino said residents should remember that the tropical storms can form every month of the year. Storms are more likely to form during the season June 1 through Nov. 30.
Iovino said it was no surprise that Tampa Bay would make Dr. Stephen Leatherman's list of 10 Most Hurricane Vulnerable Areas.
Leatherman, who is director of the International Hurricane Research Center, released his top 10 list on Sept. 28, which included Tampa and St. Petersburg at No. 10.
Iovino said Pinellas was in a vulnerable location and had a large population with limited egress - a major reason why hurricane preparedness had to be a year-round matter of importance.
Iovino said it was great to have non-active hurricane seasons, except that it made it more difficult to get the public to take the threat seriously. He said predictions that the season might be ending early or would not be as active as predicted also made it harder to get the public to stay on alert.
Iovino also reminded residents that no hurricanes had come through Pinellas County during the years of 2004 and 2005. The county did receive some impact from tropical storm force winds, but never hurricane force because all of the storms had either been downgraded to a tropical storm not yet strengthened to hurricane force before passing through or by the area.
He said people should maintain their hurricane kits and have storm shutters and other protective devices available to put into place within two hours notice. Evacuation plans should be maintained.
He said no one could predict the future or the weather with 100 percent accuracy. Emergency officials preach that preparedness is the key to survivability. Iovino said people needed to keep that message in their minds at all times.
"When it's our turn, it's our turn," he said. "Personal preparedness could be life or death."
Predictions and forecasts
Early season predictions from the Colorado experts and meteorologists with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration called for an above-normal season. Gray and Klotzbach's October report said that as of Sept. 30, the season had been average.
The report said that June and July had about average activity while August was below normal. September's activity was "somewhat above the long-term average." Landfall in the United States has been "well below average" with no hurricanes making landfall thus far.
As of Oct. 1, nine named storms have formed this season, five hurricanes and two major hurricanes. A major hurricane is a storm of Category 3 strength or above.
The October forecast calls for two named storms, one hurricane and no major hurricanes, which is below-normal activity. Landfall probabilities for the United States also are below average, according to the report.
"Our below-average prediction for October-November activity is largely due to the rapid emergence of an El Niño event during the latter part of this summer," Gray and Klotzbach said. " No intense (or major) hurricanes have been observed to form after 1 October in El Niño years since 1950."
The report also attributed the reduced seasonal activity to mid-level dryness in the tropical Atlantic, with large amounts of African dust.
No hurricane activity is predicted for November.
"Tropical cyclone activity in November is not very frequent," the report said. "Since 1950, 41 percent of years have witnessed the development of one or more named storms in November, while only 27 percent of years have witnessed the development of one or more hurricanes. Only four years since 1950 (7 percent) have had a major hurricane develop in November."
The report said that the probability of named storm, hurricane and major hurricane development becomes even less likely in El Niño years.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Adminstration, El Nino is characterized by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific. El Niño was originally recognized by a Peruvian fisherman off the coast of South America as the appearance of unusually warm water in the Pacific ocean, occurring near the beginning of the year. El Niño means The Little Boy or Christ child in Spanish. This name was used for the tendency of the phenomenon to arrive around Christmas.
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Article published on Wednesday, Oct. 4, 2006
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