The Sept. 1, 8 p.m. National Hurricane Center forecast tracking map shows Hurricane Earl located about 565 miles south-southeast of Cape Gatters, NC.
Map courtesy of NOAA
The Sept. 1, 5 p.m. National Hurricane Center forecast tracking map shows Tropical Storm Fiona located about 185 miles northeast of St. Thomas, U.S. Virgin Islands.
Map courtesy of NOAA
The Sept. 1, 5 p.m. National Hurricane Center forecast tracking map shows Tropical Storm Gaston located about 895 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.
Tropical Storm Gaston, the seventh named storm of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, formed Wednesday afternoon about 895 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands.
Gaston is the fourth tropical storm to form in the last 11 days, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Hurricane experts Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray from Colorado State University released on Sept. 1 the forecast for the next two weeks.
“We believe the next two weeks will be characterized by activity at average levels,” the report said.
Klotzbach and Gray still stand by their earlier predictions that call for 2010 to have above-average hurricane activity. The forecast calls for18 named storms with 10 of the 18 strengthening into hurricanes. Of the 10, five are forecast to become major hurricanes, Category 3 or above.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s updated forecast says there is a 70 percent chance of 14 to 20 named storms forming between June 1 and Nov. 30. The number includes the first three storms of the season: Alex, Bonnie and Colin.
NOAA says of the 14 to 20, 8 to 12 could be hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or higher. Of the 14 to 20, four to six could be major hurricanes, Category 3 or higher, with winds of 111 mph or more.
Thus far, five hurricanes have formed in 2010 and two of the five, Danielle and Earl, were major hurricanes.
On Wednesday afternoon, hurricane and tropical storm warnings and watches were in affect from North Carolina along the east coast to New Jersey as Category 4 Hurricane Earl continued to make its way northwest through the Atlantic Ocean.
The NHC said if Earl continues on its current projected track, the core of the hurricane would approach North Carolina late Thursday.
“Earl is still a large hurricane and growing,” the NHC said.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 90 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward 200 miles.
Earl’s forecast remains uncertain. The computer models show Earl passing to the east but not far from the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Thursday night.
“Only a small westward deviation of the track to the west would bring the core of the hurricane to the coast,” the NHC said.
Tropical Storm Fiona and Gaston
All watches and warnings were discontinued Wednesday afternoon as Tropical Storm Fiona moved over the open Atlantic. Forecasters say Fiona likely will not strengthen.
Gaston seems to be taking a southwesterly course as compared to the last three storms; however, it is still too early to tell if it will affect Florida. According to NHC discussion, Gaston could strengthen into a major hurricane by Tuesday.
Waiting in the wings
The NHC announced Wednesday night that another strong tropical wave was moving off the coast of Africa. Some slow development is possible, the NHC said. Currently, there is a low chance, 10 percent, of the system becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours.
Pinellas County Emergency Management officials ask that residents keep an eye on the weather throughout the season, which ends Nov. 30.
For more information on hurricanes and how to prepare, visit the Hurricane Guide. For up-to-date weather information, visit the Tropical Weather section.
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