The National Hurricane Center is monitoring four systems in the Atlantic basin the morning of Friday, Sept. 13, including Tropical Storm Gabrielle, Hurricane Humberto and Tropical Depression 10. In addition, there is a fourth area of disturbed weather with 20 percent odds of forming into a tropical cyclone within the next five days.
The National Hurricane Center expects to downgrade Hurricane Humberto to a tropical storm later today. Depression 10 most likely will become Tropical Storm Ingrid, and Tropical Storm Gabrielle is forecast to become a depression.
None of these storms has much of a chance of affecting the United States except Ingrid, which is expected to bring life-threatening flooding to parts of eastern Mexico and could move into south Texas.
Humberto’s claim to fame will continue to come from being the first hurricane of the 2013 season. NHC meteorologists expect the storm to remain over open waters of the Atlantic through the forecast period.
A fourth system, a low pressure about 450 miles east of the Leeward Islands has only a low chance – about 20 percent – of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours.
According to records, 2013 is the first year since 2002 that no hurricane formed through the month of August. Records show that on average at least one hurricane forms in a season by Aug. 10.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s climate experts have predicted that as many as six to nine hurricanes could form during the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season. As of Sept. 9, eight named storms have formed. NOAA’s forecast calls for 13 to 19.
Andrea was the season’s first tropical storm. It formed June 5 in the east-central Gulf of Mexico. Andrea had winds of about 65 mph when it made landfall in Dixie County about 10 miles south of Steinhatchee about 5:40 p.m. June 7. Andrea brought wind and rain to Pinellas County, causing minor damage to the beaches. Rain bands from the storm spawned a tornado that touched down in Gulfport the morning of June 6.
Tropical Storm Barry started as a tropical depression on Monday, June 17, as it approached the coast of Belize on the northeastern coast of Central America. It strengthened into a tropical storm June 19 in the southern Gulf of Mexico and made landfall along the coast of Mexico June 20.
The third tropical storm was short-lived. Chantal formed July 7 over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean and degenerated into a tropical wave July 10.
Dorian was the fourth tropical storm of 2013. It formed the morning of July 24 in the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. It was downgraded to a tropical depression July 27.
Erin brought the count to five. It started as a depression on Aug. 15 and strengthened into a tropical storm the same day. Erin was downgraded back to a depression on Aug. 16, strengthened into a storm again on Aug. 17 before wind speeds decreased and Erin’s status returned to a depression.
Tropical Storm Fernand began as tropical depression six on Aug. 25 in the southwest Gulf of Mexico and strengthened into a named storm that same day. It made landfall Aug. 26 along the coast of Mexico.
Gabrielle was another short-lived storm, forming Sept. 5 and dissipating the next day. However, the storm regenerated Sept. 10, taking aim at Bermuda. The storm is expected to downgrade to a depression by Sept. 13.
Humberto was the first hurricane of the season and remains active over the eastern Atlantic Ocean. It is forecast to weaken and become a tropical storm on Sept. 13.
Tropical Depression 10 is the latest threat and most likely will be upgraded to Tropical Storm Ingrid on Sept. 13. Forecasters predict that is will be life-threatening rains to parts of Mexico when it comes ashore sometime on Monday, Sept. 16.
The peak months of the Atlantic basin hurricane season are August through October, and about 55 percent of tropical storms and hurricanes form during the months of September and October.