Hurricane could devastate city
Death, injury rate predicted to be high due to salt water surges from bays, gulf
By THOMAS MICHALSKI
| Article published on Thursday, July 2, 2009 |
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If a hurricane ... even a Category 1 storm ... targets Pinellas County this year, the surge of water from Old Tampa Bay, Tampa Bay and the Gulf of Mexico could cause millions of dollars in damages and threaten the lives of thousands of people.
Cities such as Pinellas Park and parts of Largo can be left under water, despite the spending millions of dollars on storm water systems that are not designed to deal with salt water surges from the bays and gulf, a county official said.
Worse, the rate of injuries and deaths could be extremely high because about half the people ignore evacuation warnings and hope to survive potential hurricanes at home.
And many of those residences are mobile homes. Pinellas County, with approximately 30,000 of them, is second in the state for such domiciles only behind Polk County that comes in at about 37,000 trailer homes.
Tom Iovino, Pinellas County’s hurricane preparation specialist, has studied weather patterns, keeps in touch with the National Hurricane Center and with Dr. Bill Gray, a hurricane expert at Colorado State University since the late 1960s. Iovino speaks to civic and other groups of people about the dangers of named storms.
Iovino is quick to discount beliefs that Pinellas County is protected from hurricanes by natural and/or supernatural forces that include:
• A jet stream that protects Pinellas County, as evidenced by Hurricane Charley in 2004 that was to strike Tampa Bay. At the last minute it veered and struck the Captiva Island area near Fort Myers as a Category 3 hurricane with 150 mph winds
• An Indian legend that tells of a spell cast upon Tampa Bay’s burial grounds to protect them from hurricanes
• A large deposit of iron ore in the Gulf of Mexico near Tampa Bay. It supposedly creates magnetic forces that cause hurricanes to turn away.
None of the myths are true, Iovino said, because hurricanes have targeted Tampa Bay over the years, although the last major one occurred in 1921. That storm made landfall south of Tarpon Springs. A hurricane in 1848, believed to be a Category 4 storm with winds of up to 155 mph, was so violent that it created present-day Johns Pass between Treasure Island and Madeira Beach.
“People must be aware of the dangers of storms and the devastation they can cause,” Iovino said. “Our biggest concern is that many people ignore warnings to evacuate when a storm is predicted to strike.”
Even a Category 1 hurricane with winds of between 74 and 95 mph can create 7-foot salt water surges. That can cause the canals and rivers that snake through Pinellas County to swell and flood roads and neighborhoods.
The bottom line is that Tampa Bay is not immune from hurricanes.
“People forget that we have had some pretty close calls,” Iovino said. “It’s been pure luck that Tampa Bay has escaped hurricanes in recent years.”
In 1950, Iovino said, Hurricane Easy made landfall near Homasassa and dumped nearly 38 inches of rain in 24 hours. In 1966 Alma shook up Treasure Island with winds of up to 82 mph. There were other close calls.
“Pinellas County hasn’t had a direct hit since 1921, but that doesn’t mean it can’t happen,” Iovino said.
The so-called Tampa Bay Hurricane of 1921 came during an inactive season. It caused $10 million in damages in 1921 money and made landfall near Tarpon Springs as a 140 mph storm. The county’s population in 1921 was about 21,000. Today it exceeds 915,000. Many of the mangroves that helped stall water surges are gone, replaced by condos and other edifices.
The barrier islands are the most susceptible to gulf hurricanes. Many homes in Pinellas County were constructed in the 1950s, ‘60s and ‘70s ... long before strict hurricane codes of 2001 were put in place. The state-mandated codes call for new homes to survive 145 mph winds.
Iovino said new homes include rebar-reenforced concrete, roofs straps in walls that are connected to the ground and other building code mandates.
So what can happen if a hurricane targets Pinellas County? Iovino describes a fictitious Category 2 hurricane that makes landfall near Treasure Island. It comes in with winds of up to 110 mph and storm surges of up to 12 feet.
“The winds of a hurricane run counter clockwise,” Iovino said.
That means a storm coming from the gulf will force salt water from both Tampa Bay and Old Tampa Bay and the gulf into Hillsborough, Manatee and Pinellas counties. The barrier islands and land closest to the bays and the gulf will be underwater. Saved from flooding will be the “white” or non-evacuation areas such as in parts of St. Petersburg, Seminole and Clearwater.
“Keep in mind that only 8 inches of water can knock a human off his feet,” Iovino said. “Think about what 12 feet can do.”
The storm would leave behind fallen trees, construction materials, overturned vehicles, chemicals from storage sheds and, of course, the water and wind damage. Major roads such as U.S. 19, 66th Street and 49th Street would be flooded and choked with litter.
Many people who believe that they survived hurricanes really experienced nothing more than the remnants of storms.
So what can people do to prepare for a hurricane?
“Listen for evacuation recommendations,” Iovino said. “Know how susceptible your neighborhood is to flooding.”
Iovino said people don’t have to evacuate to Orlando or beyond. Friends and relatives living in Pinellas County’s non-evacuation zones can offer just as much protection as a distant place.
“People need to take a personal responsibility to protect themselves and their loved ones,” Iovino said.
This year’s predictions call for between nine and 14 named storms, four to seven of them being hurricanes and up to three of them being major.
“Even one hurricane that makes landfall can turn 2009 into a bad hurricane season,” Iovino said. “Be prepared, listen to the forecasts and do what must be done when and if a storm hits.”
What you can do
Carefully monitor weather forecasts to stay up-to-date on the latest conditions. The following are important telephone numbers and Web sites that offer assistance before a hurricane.
• Pinellas County Emergency Management: 464-3800, or visit www.pinellascounty.org/emergency.
• Find your evacuation level by calling 453-3150 or visit www.pinellascounty.org/emergency/knowyourzone.htm.
• Register for special needs transportation: 464-3800, or visit www.pinellascounty.org/forms/special-needs.htm.
• Sign up for the Community Notification Service to receive text emergency information on your cell phone: 888-689-8905
Here are some things you can do before a hurricane:
• Take time to carefully review the items in your hurricane survival kit and all of your hurricane plans to ensure you have thought of everything to take care of yourself and your family.
• Now is a great time to look at your lawn furniture, bird baths, barbecues and other outside items to see if you have enough room inside your home to store these should a hurricane threaten.
• For more information about hurricane preparedness, visit TBNweekly's online hurricane guide.
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Article published on Thursday, July 2, 2009
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