Colorado meteorologists predict 2006 hurricane season
By SUZETTE PORTER
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PINELLAS COUNTY - Experts say there is a 64 percent chance that at least one major hurricane will hit the Florida Peninsula during the 2006 season.
William M. Gray, professor of atmospheric science at Colorado State University and head of the Tropical Meteorology Project, and Philip J. Klotzbach, project member and research associate at Colorado State University, issued updated predictions on the season's activities on April 4.
According to the extended range forecast of Atlantic seasonal hurricane activity and U.S. landfall strike probability for 2006, 17 named storms can be expected; nine hurricanes and five intense hurricanes, category 3, 4 or 5 storms.
"Information obtained through March 2006 continues to indicate that the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season will be much more active than the average 1950-2000 season," according to the abstract of the forecast report.
The average number of named storms for the period, 1950-2000, was 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 intense hurricanes, the report said.
Gray and Klotzbach said there is a 81 percent chance that at least one intense hurricane will make landfall along the U.S. coastline and a 64 percent chance that an intense storm will make landfall along the U.S. East Coast, including Peninsula Florida. The report gave a 47 percent chance for an intense hurricane to make landfall along the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville, Texas, and an above average chance of major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean.
The predicted chances are more than the average for the last century. According to the report, the average for the entire U.S. coastline for the last century was 52 percent and 64 percent for the U.S. East Coast.
Gary Vickers, director of Pinellas County Emergency Management, said predictions of seasonal hurricane activity was valuable in terms of knowing a relative level of expected activity.
"Regardless of the numbers given in early predictions, people need to be prepared," he said.
Vickers said Pinellas County Emergency Management does not vary its preparations dependent upon forecasts.
"We plan for the worst year we've ever had, and the public should do likewise," Vickers said.
The forecasts are not guarantees and will not give tell us whether a hurricane will hit Pinellas County, Vickers said. The forecasts will indicate trends, based on historical data and current climatology, of general expected activity in the Atlantic Basin.
"No doubt the past seasons have been more active," Vickers said. "Hurricanes have been more frequent and more intense."
He said the past two years had been much more active in comparison to the past 15 to 20 years, and the trend was expected to continue for the next decade. Although, he said, during the years, it was possible for seasons to be less intense.
Gray and his colleagues, as well as hurricane experts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, will issue additional projections just before the start of the season. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.
Vickers said it was vital that residents help themselves. He said everyone should be willing to educate themselves about hurricanes and to develop a successful survival plan.
"People should be more prepared," he said. "People should translate their worries into positive action and take responsibility for their safety and comfort. People need to stop playing the odds. They're gambling with their lives."
For a copy of Gray and Klotzbach's forecast, visit hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts.
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