Experts predict active hurricane season
By SUZETTE PORTER
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PINELLAS COUNTY – Hurricane experts predict a very active 2007 hurricane season, and according to a report released on Tuesday, landfall probabilities are well above long-period averages.
William M. Gray, professor of atmospheric science at Colorado State University and head of the Tropical Meteorology Project, and Philip J. Klotzbach, project member and research associate at Colorado State University, issued updated predictions on the season's activities on April 3.
“We have increased our forecast for the 2007 hurricane season, largely due to the rapid dissipation of El Niño conditions,” the report said. “We are now calling for a very active hurricane season. Landfall probabilities for the 2007 hurricane season are well above their long-period averages.”
Gray and Klotzbach said probabilities for a least one major hurricane, a Category 3 or higher, to make landfall on the U.S. coastline is 74 percent. The average for the last century is 52 percent. The prediction for the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida peninsula is 50 percent. The average for the last century is 31 percent.
The report said probabilities for the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville, Texas, is 49 percent. The average for the last century is 30 percent. Predictions are for an above-average risk of a major hurricane making landfall in the Caribbean.
“Information obtained through March 2007 indicates that the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season will be much more active than the average 1950-2000 season,” the report said. “We estimate that 2007 will have about nine hurricanes (average is 5.9), 17 named storms (average is 9.6), 85 named storm days (average is 49.1), 40 hurricane days (average is 24.5), 5 intense (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 2.3) and 11 intense hurricane days (average is 5.0).”
The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be about 140 percent of the long-period average. Activity in the Atlantic basin in 2007 is expected to be about 185 percent of the long-term average.
The report said either neutral or weak-to-moderate La Niña conditions are expected to be present during the upcoming hurricane season. Tropical and North Atlantic sea surface temperatures remain well above their long-period averages.
According to the experts, the influence of El Niño conditions resulted in no hurricane landfalls in 2006.
“The 2006 season was only the 12th year since 1945 that we have witnessed no hurricane landfalls along the United States coastline,” the report said. “Since 1945, we have had only two consecutive-year periods where there were no hurricane landfalls.”
The two consecutive seasons of 1981-1982 and 2000-2001 had no hurricane landfalls.
The year 2005 had a record number of tropical cyclones (27 named storms, 15 hurricanes and 7 major hurricanes). Other active years included 1933 with 21 named storms. “Despite a fairly inactive 2006 hurricane season, we believe that the Atlantic basin is currently in an active hurricane cycle associated with a strong thermohaline circulation and an active phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation,” the report said.
This active cycle is expected to continue for another decade or two, the report said, before a return to “a quieter Atlantic major hurricane period like we experienced during the quarter century periods of 1970-1994 and 1901-1925.”
The report pointed out that the forecasts do not predict where within the Atlantic basin the storms will strike.
“The probability of landfall for any one location along the coast is very low and reflects the fact that, in any one season, most U.S. coastal areas will not feel the effects of a hurricane no matter how active the individual season is,” the report said. “However, it must also be emphasized that a low landfall probability does not ensure that hurricanes will not come ashore.
Regardless of how active the 2007 hurricane season is, a finite probability always exists that one or more hurricanes may strike along the U.S. coastline or in the Caribbean Basin and do much damage.”
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