Time to prepare
Experts predict busy hurricane season
By SUZETTE PORTER
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| Photo courtesy of NASA |
| Hurricane Katrina, a Category 5 Hurricane with winds of 175 mph on Aug. 28, 2005 is proof that it only takes one to make a bad season. |
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PINELLAS COUNTY – The experts are again predicting the possibility that hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin will be above average during the 2008 season.
Hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.
Two of the leading hurricane prognosticators, Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray, Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University, released undated predictions for 2008 on April 9.
According to the report, residents who live in hurricane-vulnerable areas should be prepared for up to 15 named storms to form during the 2008 season. Of those 15, eight could become hurricanes and, of the eight, half (or four) could become intense hurricanes of Category 3 or higher.
While admitting that pinpointing exact areas of landfall is still an unproven science, Klotzbach and Gray, who head the Tropical Meteorology Project, do offer some educated guesses as to the likelihood of a hurricane making landfall in a given location.
For 2008, the chances are 69 percent that a hurricane will make landfall somewhere along the entire U.S. coastline. The average for the last century is 52 percent.
The two experts put odds at 45 percent that a storm would hit the U.S. East Coast including the peninsula of Florida at 45 percent. The average for the last century is 31 percent.
They said there was a 44 percent chance that a storm would make landfall on the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville. The average for the last century is 30 percent.
“Everyone should realize that it is impossible to precisely predict this season’s hurricane activity in early April,” Klotzbach and Gray said. “There is, however, much curiosity as to how global ocean and atmosphere features are presently arranged as regards to the probability of an active or inactive hurricane season for the coming season. … We issue these forecasts to satisfy the curiosity of the general public and to bring attention to the hurricane problem.”
Time to prepare
Tom Iovino, specialist with the Pinellas County Communications Department, said while releasing season predictions is good for creating awareness, people should not dwell on the numbers.
“People can’t say well they’ve been wrong in the past, so we don’t have to get ready,” he said. “People need to prepare like they know they’re going to get hit.”
Iovino used the year 1992 as an example. He said the season got off to a late start and people became complacent. Then in August Hurricane Andrew made landfall in Florida.
“Anyone who lived through that knows it only takes one storm to make a bad season,” he said.
The county is currently working on the theme for its hurricane education for 2008. Iovino said there is some concern that due to the tough economic times people may feel they can’t afford to prepare.
“But they can’t ignore this,” he said. “They’ve got to be ready, but they can do it without breaking the bank.”
Iovino said the first thing to do was to take a look at what supplies already were on hand and check them for expiration dates. He reminded people that even non-perishable foods and water have expiration dates.
“You may already have most of what you need,” he said.
People who need to add to their supplies or replace out-of-date items are encouraged to buy a few things at a time, so they’ll be ready when the season starts on June 1.
The fate of the hurricane sales tax holiday is still unknown. Iovino said if people wanted to wait to see if the Florida Legislature passes a sales tax holiday bill and then stock up, they could try to put aside a few dollars each week to go shopping later.
At list of hurricane supplies can be found on the County’s Web site. Go to www.pinellascounty.org and look for the hurricane preparedness link on the right-side menu under special interests. A list of hurricane supplies also can be found in the online hurricane guide.
People should realize that some of the items on the list may be ones that would make a person more comfortable. Others, such as food, water, medicines, flash lights, radio and batteries are necessities.
The experts say that people should be prepared to survive on their own for at least three days after a major hurricane.
Iovino’s message, especially for those on a tight budget, is “just get what you need.
“The big thing is for people to start thinking ahead and get prepared.”
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